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Épisode 185: Technologie, gouvernance et géopolitique avec Stephen Blank

Sommaire de l'épisode

Nous explorons les défis et les complexités du marché des semi-conducteurs en compagnie du professeur Blank. Cette conversation met l'accent sur la géopolitique, l'innovation, et les modèles de gouvernance qui influencent les entreprises.

Stephen Blank discute des impacts de la peur et du changement sur la société, ainsi que des différences entre les systèmes économiques et leur influence sur la stratégie d'entreprise.

Stephen Blank

Stephen Blank est un habitué de nos podcasts et vit et travaille à New York. Il détient un baccalauréat de l’université Dartmouth, des maîtrises des universités de Cambridge et de Harvard ainsi qu’un PhD de Harvard. Il est Senior Fellow de l'Institut sur la science, la recherche et les politiques publiques de l'Université d'Ottawa et Senior Fellow de l'Institut Macdonald Laurier. 

Vous trouverez un résumé de sa longue et passionnante carrière à l’épisode 25, le premier des 6 épisodes réalisés avec lui.

À retenir

  • La complexité du marché des semi-conducteurs est en constante évolution.
  • La demande pour l'IA influence fortement le marché.
  • Les entreprises doivent naviguer dans un environnement géopolitique complexe.
  • La gouvernance d'entreprise joue un rôle crucial dans la stratégie.
  • Les systèmes économiques diffèrent considérablement d'un pays à l'autre.
  • La peur du changement affecte la prise de décision des entreprises.
  • Les gouvernements ont un rôle limité dans la régulation des entreprises.
  • Les défis de la gouvernance d'entreprise sont de plus en plus pressants.

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Détails de l'épisode

(0:00) Bienvenue à l’épisode 185

(01:09) Introduction

  • Entrevue avec Stephen Blank
  • Professeur, Consultant et conférencier expert en matière de stratégie, de management et de commerce international.

(01:44) Les difficultés d’Intel

After IBM, whose revenues peaked in 2011 and now hover around half that peak, now it’s Intel’s turn with revenues down more than 40% from their 2021 peak. What is the problem?

  • I worked for IBM, which started making clocks for schools and then made other electric and electronic equipment for industry.
  • IBM has come a long way and has gone through many iterations and may need more time to renew with growth.
  • Semiconductor is a word that means many things, and technology is constantly changing in this industry.
  • Intel has taken care of its core business but has not invested in the emerging trends like Nvidia has.
  • Early on, the semiconductors industry split into the companies that make them and the companies that design them. While Intel still makes and designs them, TSMC has specialized in their manufacture.
  • There is a demand issue and Bidenomics (the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022), i.e. governments, has pushed for re-shoring of semiconductor manufacture.
  • Intel’s largest market is still China and given the current geopolitical tensions, there is no wonder that there is confusion.
  • Whether or not Nvidia is worth its current valuation is up for debate.

(07:26) Géopolitique et innovation dans l'industrie des semi-conducteurs

With demand for semiconductors still growing at 7,2% according to IDC, surely it's not just a question of innovation or cost control?

  • Demand may increase overall but demand for the various types of semiconductors rises and falls.
  • Most of Nvidia’s products are in high demand but their use case is yet to be proven.
  • There is no way that TSMC will relocate its manufacturing operations to the USA, and probably not their latest technologies.
  • If Bidenomics fulfills its promises, the portion of semiconductors made in the USA will go from 10% to 14% of worldwide semiconductors production.
  • Investment in China in this industry is not going away.
  • Bidenomics authorized but did not appropriate for research in semiconductors and that was the real important piece of this legislation that yet remains to be done.
  • US firms are doing interesting stuff, but these markets are not yet very mature, and time is often their enemy.
  • Don’t forget that publicly traded companies are under pressure to reward shareholders, the large players who are looking at quarterly results.

(13:21) Modèles de gouvernance et leur impact sur les entreprises

For these huge corporations, is it bad boards, bad CEO’s or simply resistance to change that could be the main culprit?

  • American corporate governance is different: corporations have a lot of independence with regard to governments and society.
  • Companies are structured like the government.
  • In France, Germany and Japan, companies have a more important social role.
  • In the USA, no one wants boards to be adversarial except in emergencies: they should be, at best, quiet.
  • Occasionally, the US government will intervene to stimulate investment but it’s mostly there to ensure economic competitiveness.
  • In times of uncertainty, some government decisions seem unclear, like the case of US Steel being acquired by Nippon Steel.

(20:29) L’évolution des modèles de capitalisme

You taught me back in 1997 that there are 3 major types of capitalism: Anglo-Saxon, German and Japanese.  Where do China and India fit in these three models?

  • China is far more “top-down” than most other countries: the Chinese government is very active in what companies do: hire, invest, etc.
  • China has created a large middle class through the government’s involvement in manufacturing and transport infrastructure.
  • Their efforts in real estate have been less successful.
  • India has all the defects of democracy with excessive regionalism and has not been able to equal China in creating a domestic market.
  • Until logistics improve, no one is going to invest massively in India and their government has talked about it and done very little.

(25:45) Impact de la peur et du changement sur la société

France is now experiencing its own brand of political deadlock.  What are the forces deepening this crisis and what are the forces resolving it?  We are surely not going to invent a better breed of politicians, are we?

  • In the last decades, there has been a growing sense of fear: technology, population, climate and erosion in the belief that governments can do something about these sources of fear.
  • This has created a demand for local control at various levels: country, region, tribe, language, and religion.
  • Both extremes have a negativist view of these issues.
  • I went to high school in a school where no one went to university.
  • My generation felt secure in their plans for the future.
  • This is not the case with the current generation, which feels very much insecure.
  • In 1981, the most wanted specialization in business schools was marketing; 10 years later, it was Finance but it was never public service.
  • Public service has lost a lot of its attractiveness as a career and talent has dried out somewhat.

(34:58) Conclusion

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